New entrants could take up to 31% of Europe’s e-truck market by 2030, T&E says
Chinese, US and other new entrants could capture between 24% and 31% of the European electric heavy truck market by 2030, according to a new analysis by Transport & Environment. However, the estimate partly relies on manufacturers achieving their publicly stated production and sales ambitions.
New truck manufacturers entering the European market could capture a significant share of electric heavy-duty vehicle sales by the end of the decade, according to a new analysis published by Transport & Environment (T&E).
The environmental organisation estimates that new entrants, including manufacturers such as BYD, Tesla and SuperPanther, could account for between 24% and 31% of Europe’s electric heavy truck market by 2030.
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The figure should, however, be considered a scenario rather than a market forecast. T&E’s calculation is based on vehicle prices and specifications as well as manufacturers’ publicly stated production, export and sales ambitions. The organisation itself notes that the estimate assumes those ambitions are taken at face value.
T&E estimates a 12% TCO advantage
T&E also compared the total cost of ownership and technical characteristics of electric trucks from established European manufacturers and new market entrants.
According to its analysis, purchasing an electric truck from a new entrant could result in a 12% lower TCO than an equivalent European model.
For a German transport operator, T&E calculates a cost of €0.55/km for a new-entrant electric truck compared with €0.63/km for a European equivalent, including residual value. On the assumptions used in the study, this would translate into savings of up to €43,000 over five years.
The organisation also concludes that electric trucks offered by new entrants are broadly competitive with European models on parameters including range, charging time, payload and energy efficiency, although individual vehicles involve different trade-offs.
T&E calls on European truckmakers to accelerate electrification
T&E uses the findings to argue that established European manufacturers should accelerate their transition towards zero-emission trucks and that the EU should maintain its existing CO2 targets for heavy-duty vehicles.
“Competitive Chinese and US truck models are already in the European market, many more are poised to enter soon,” said Stef Cornelis, director of freight and fleets at T&E, who argued that weakening the pace of electrification could give overseas competitors an opportunity to gain market share.
According to T&E, zero-emission trucks accounted for 5.6% of European truck sales in 2025, while electric truck penetration exceeded 15% in markets including Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands.
